Suncoast Parkway I Revenue Projections by URS Consultants, Inc.
The following is an exerpt from the December 11, 1995 report submitted from URS Consultants, Inc. to the Florida Department of Transportation.
URS Consultants, Inc. were contracted by the FDOT to provide the traffic and revenue projections required to determine the Economic Feasibility of the Suncoast I -- a critical requirement for a green-light for the project.
Based on the flawed projections developed by URS in 1992, FDOT determined that the Suncoast I passed the Economic Feasibility test and proceeded with its construction.
In 1995, URS revised the projection downward twice since the original projection in 1992 (based on which the "build" decision was made).
[From URS Consultants, Inc.]
December 11, 1995
James L. Ely, Secretary
Turnpike District
Florida Department of Transportation
1211 Governors Square Boulevard, Suite 100
Re: Traffic and Revenue Estimates
Suncoast Parkway, Project I
Dear Mr. Ely:
URS Consultants, Inc. has prepared and hereby transmits traffic and revenue estimates for the Suncoast Parkway, Project I. These forecasts are the latest and best estimates of gross toll revenues, developed for the final test of economic feasibility. We believe that these revenue estimates are appropriately conservative and consistent with known land development plans and with established long range transportation plans of the local governments in the Tampa Bay region. The traffic forecasts were developed with cooperation from the Florida Department of Transportation, District 7 Planning Office.
This letter-report contains a summary of methods, assumptions and findings from the travel demand modeling and revenue forecasting activities that produced these traffic and revenue estimates. The letter also provides a comparison with prior revenue forecasts for this project and other comparisons that we have developed to document the reasonableness of the forecasts.
...
Prior Revenue Forecasts
Over the course of its history as a Turnpike expansion project, URS has prepared a series of three distinct traffic and revenue estimates for the Suncoast parkway, shown in the following table:
| Fiscal year |
Gross Toll Revenue (000) |
Original
Dec. 1992 (*) |
Revised
Feb. 1995(b) |
Revised
Dec. 1995(c) |
| 2002 |
$70,027 |
$31,278 |
$19,723 |
| 2003 |
$72,331 |
$35,406 |
$22,994 |
| 2004 |
$77,889 |
$39,788 |
$29,028 |
| 2005 |
$80,298 |
$44,424 |
$32,584 |
| 2006 |
$104,374 |
$65,189 |
$34,614 |
| 2007 |
$107,406 |
$68,717 |
$36,643 |
| 2008 |
$110,436 |
$72,244 |
$38,671 |
| 2009 |
$116,494 |
$75,772 |
$40,700 |
| 2010 |
$119,608 |
$79,301 |
$42,730 |
| 2011 |
$122,552 |
$84,227 |
$52,025 |
| 2012 |
$125,497 |
$89,154 |
$54,407 |
| 2013 |
$147,394 |
$115,228 |
$56,786 |
| 2014 |
$150,905 |
$121,263 |
$59,168 |
| 2015 |
$154,417 |
$127,296 |
$61,549 |
| 2016 |
$157,928 |
$133,331 |
$63,930
|
(*) "Preliminary Traffic and Revenue Forecasts for the North Suncoast Expressway", by URS Consultants, Inc., dated December 22, 1992
(b) "Turnpike System Revenue Forecast", by URS Consultants, Inc., dated February 7, 1995.
(c) Current by URS Consultants, Inc.
The original set of forecasts, produced in December 1992, were developed with the first Turnpike TBRPM. This model was validated before the release of important 1990 Census data. The forecasts were also based on earlier, more aggressive land development and transportation improvement plans. These forecasts were used in the prelimininary economic feasibility test and resulted in the Turnpike District's decision to proceed to final design.
View copy of letter above
View copy of table above